HOW TO ASSESS: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS & MARKET SATURATION FOR YOUR LOOK

 HOW TO USE MARKET ANALYSIS TO ASSESS YOUR LOOK

For an actor, estimating market saturation (market analysis) is easier than assessing market demand. To assess market saturation use the gaussian normal distribution mathematics technique described here in the Watermelons YouTube video:

Normal Probability Distribution or "Normal Distribution"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gI5y3RZe9fk

Find a smaller agency in Los Angeles that has 100 to 300 actors listed on IMDb.  Ideally the list of actors should be large enough to generate statistically meaningful results.  It's important to use only theatrical agency rosters if you are assessing your theatrical marketing strategy and to likewise only use commercial agency rosters if you are assessing your commercial strategy.  These are very different domains with different market dynamics.

Probably the best practice would be to choose three similar agencies each with 100-300 clients and then do this analysis.  It's best to use IMDB Pro because you will have access to more information about each talent, possibly including resume items or training that they have self-published.

INSTRUCTIONS

You will be GROUPING ACTOR PHOTOGRAPHS by age, ethnicity and their visually obvious archetype which will be highly correlated to their age/genotype.  Use a sheet of graph paper and make at least 30 buckets, one for each anticipated category.

Your own category (ie. competing actors) should be at the top of the sheet.  The primary goal here is to tabulate the number of actors who directly compete with you based on age and look.  We’re looking for a good statistical approximation.

The other categories are somewhat less important but you will need to make specific buckets if you want to visualize the bell curve or gaussian / normal distribution of your existing archetype relative to the entire marketplace.

Scroll through the list of faces from the top down.  Each time there is a face that appears to fall into direct competition with your archetype, make a tick in your bucket on the graph paper.  If an actor does not fit into an existing bucket on your graph paper, create a new bucket with a descriptive label “Diverse male, 25, clean cut” and then mark a tick in the new bucket.  Otherwise, find an existing group or bucket that already describes this talent and make a tick there.

Probably one sheet of graph paper for each agency.

Now you have the raw numbers to create a gaussian distribution or bell curve.  If your stats are good, after three agencies your category only has 10-30 direct competitors.  If your category is not so good, the number will be an order of magnitude higher.  Graph the results on the bell curve.  If you fall near the edge of the curve, market saturation is low.  If you’re under the very center of the curve, your category is saturated.

To estimate the total number of direct competitors in Los Angeles, take the claim “there are 150,000 actors in Los Angeles” literally.  If the total number of actors at the three agencies that you evaluated totals 1000.  Then you can extrapolate or estimate the number of your direct competitors using simple algebra.  If there are 100 direct competitors in your category from a population of 1000 actors at three agencies, then an estimate for the total number of competitors in your category is 1/10 x 150,000 or 15,000 direct competitors represented at agencies in Los Angeles. If there are only 10 direct competitors among 1000 actors at three agencies, then the total is 1/100 x 150,000 or 150 estimated direct competitors.  If you have these numbers in hand and want to discuss.

While you’re doing the above exercise, pay attention to actors with a similar age and genotype but with a highly differentiated marketing presentation (or LOOK) who appear to be securing a disproportionate number of acting roles on television.  This will require that you visit the IMDb profile of every actor or actress that looks like you and doing a quick evaluation of their recent credits.

Generally speaking, the more careers and looks you analyze with respect to the above, the more accurate and informed your decisions will be.

Keep a vision board or scrapbook for the VISUAL ACTOR BRANDS (I.E. LOOKS) that are generating the most career activity.

In the words of the late Steve Jobs, “Good artists copy, great artists steal.”

Hopefully this doesn’t need any further explanation, but I’m open to providing an elaboration of this last statement.